Wow. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I was slightly down on Nokia, now I am unequivocably up; with one caveat ...
Wow. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I was slightly down on Nokia, now I am unequivocably up; with one caveat ...
Nokia should not have released the phones at the same time, with shipping dates so far away. We all know the business 101 proposition that you do not cannibalize current sales with future promise, and that is exactly what is happening. There is only space for one high-end, high-priced Symbian S60 phone of each form factor, and the shipping dates of the N70 (3Q 2005) and N91 (4Q 2005) are tantalizingly close, too close, perhaps, with the 6681/6682 not yet shipping, and the N70 basically being a prettier, smaller, 6680.
On the subject of the N91 becoming an iPod Killer, I think it has very very good chances of that, unless they mangle the interface so badly that it's unusable, of the added fragility of the hard disk makes the phone so prone to failure (from, say, dropping) that it's pointless as a phone. Gartner analyst David Wood, disagrees:
He also suspects Nokia will find it hard to compete with Apple and other digital music player makers.
"All the mobile manufacturers are chasing after the music market but it will be a challenge to compete with Apple because the iPod is such an iconic design," Mr Wood said.
Music phones are more likely to compete with cheaper, flash-memory based music players, he thinks.
"Nokia is saying that this device means users won't need a separate digital music player but there is always a compromise with converged devices," he said.
"It is all very well to say camera phones are outselling digital cameras and MP3 players but people who buy them are not necessarily going to download music or take pictures."
Astute readers will remember this is very similar to what I said about Nokia not really dominating the smartphone segment in spite of it's apparent 50% marketshare:
It must be remembered that part of Nokia's success in this area is tied to the fact that all it's higher-end phones use the Symbian OS. This means that anyone who buys one of those phones will be contributing to Nokia's "smart phone" domination. While this is literally true, the fact remains that many of these customers have no intention of buying a smart phone, and therefore will never use the device as it may be used.
The key difference is, in the case of digital music players as a converged device, there is no compromise (except that it will be terrible losing it). The interface can be as good, the capacity is there (4GB), there is an industry standard output (3.5mm plug, FINALLY), and battery life is more than acceptable at 12.5 hours.(even though this figure is probably for music player only use) The single disincentive (over a, say, iPod mini) will be the fact that iTunes Store bought tracks are unlikely to be playable on the device; but that is an issue more to do with Apple's desire to create a monopoly rather than an intrinsic one.
Nokia will indubitably do well. Symplification will look at each of the phones in more depth when they become available, but the thing to note now is this: If you have a Nokia 6630, there is no point upgrading to the 6680 unless you videoconference. If you have a Nokia 7610/6670, you might want to hold off purchasing the "dream" Nokia 6681/6682 for a mere 3/4. Unless, of course, you need to have the new thing, always. And I suppose 6 months as the "top" phone (i.e. Nokia 6680) is a long time, in this day and age.
The best gallery shots of the whole Nokia N-series are available from Slashphone - Links:
Oh - and Nokia has come up with a solution to running out of 4 digit numbers. ;)
Updates:
Live pictures have become available:
