
I've been wrapped in the embrace of Apple since the iPhone became available globally.
No Symbian (note: Symplification) phone released since then has been compelling (to date none has a competitive mobile browser and a quick look at shipping Nokia Symbian phones suggests that all such phones are not in the same "smartphone" league as RIM/Apple/Android - indeed, they are plagued with the same basic problem the Nokia 7610 had in 2004 - a non-Nokia guide + time is needed to use a Symbian phone to potential). Nokia's fortunes have fallen, as a result. In spite of this, as of Q2 2010, Nokia is still the world's leading smartphone (Symbian) vendor. This is a position that Nokia has held for at least the last 6 years. I suggest that this is not a fluke - Nokia has endured in spite of the mediocrity of Symbian as a smartphone OS because Nokia executes well (i.e. makes good devices and phones which are usable as phones).
By this logic, assuming Nokia continues to execute, they are poised to reverse marketshare losses - not because of Symbian (although presumably Symbian will eventually improve) but because of Maemo - now MeeGo. In particular, i think it is clear that Nokia is poised to take back marketshare once Nokia starts to ship a "current-gen" mobile OS.
While the question of whether MeeGo is a "current-gen" mobile OS is somewhat debatable until the first consumer devices ship, it is helpful to note: (i) MeeGo's precedessors have been reasonably acceptable (e.g. Nokia N900, although note that the Nokia N800, with a MeeGo-precedessor OS, never achieved the widespread popularity of the similarly positioned iPad); and (ii) MeeGo's adoption in July as the next reference platform by an automotive industry group which essentially comprises every car manufacturer of note, impressive because Android was the obvious alternative and perhaps choice, being also "open source".
All the above is not really news and was probably insufficient to save Nokia's current CEO from being axed, but what Oracle has started by suing Google is potentially even better for MeeGo - it might be the tipping point for manufacturer-led adoption of MeeGo.
This is because:
(i) MeeGo, Android, Symbian and Microsoft are the only available options apart from self-developing;
(ii) while Symbian was not used extensively when it was Nokia-controlled, Android has now been adopted extensively, providing a precedent;
(iii) Symbian is a non-starter (see above, ^3 etc. may help but OSes need devices, and Nokia has pledged that it's high end is MeeGo); and
(iv) Microsoft costs money (and is equally unproven).
Android was the obvious choice for as a manufacturer response to iOS because of track record (i.e. (ii)) and being free (iv), but with the patent litigation risk (see ArsTechnica for a legal analysis of Oracle's claim which seems to be credible) it is hard to see any manufacturer willing to continue to take the risk without serious mitigation -phones on current roadmaps are likely to continue to be released, but the obvious alternative is to spend more device R&D dollars on WM7 and MeeGo. This is especially true because that it is not clear that Google is actively assisting HTC in HTC's defence against's Apple's patent infringement suit, apart from issuing some PR-friendly statements .
Why does Nokia benefit from this? Again, execution. It's probably reasonable to expect that Nokia's phones will always be ahead (just!) of the pack. If the pack comprises all phone manufacturers of note, the bar becomes higher. I do like Nokia. While I expected that my next phone would be Android driven, perhaps not!
N.B.: The iPhone 4 is fine and dandy, it has a gorgeous screen, is faster and gets some data network connectivity in previously "dead" zones, but I've been suffering from dropped calls and bad voice connections (and I don't even use it terribly often as a phone). Coupled with the failure to implement some really basic interface features (e.g. the ability to quickly switch bluetooth/tethering on/off), as alternatives mature the temptation to jump increases. Maybe it's just because I'm a PC (*koffkoff*). As a brief aside, notice also that arguably the best hardware available as a non-iPhone smartphone is STILL the HTC HD2. Pity about the OS it runs and I wonder why even the newest Android HTC devices don't obviously surpass it.
Note: As of the date of this post, the author has no shares or other interest in any named company, except that in his capacity as a solicitor he may have acted for one or more such companies on matters unrelated to this post; the author has not acted for any company in relation to Oracle's claim.





